- "While industrial production increased at a strong pace in 2Q, the end of the car-scrapping scheme is likely to have weighed on overall GDP. In 2Q, we expect economic growth to have slowed to 0.2% qoq, which should be followed by still modest growth in the following quarters."
- "While the pace of increase in the number of inactive people keeps moderating and the growth rate of the labor force steadily increased, monthly employment figures and signals from business surveys show that a real turning point in the labor market has not yet occurred."
- "In May, bank lending continued to gain a stronger foothold, although the rate of growth remains modest. Still, it is encouraging that the increase in household lending was accompanied by a return on an upward trend of corporate lending, although the latter is still in negative territory."
- "Inflation kept easing in June, following the drop in gasoline prices. In July, we expect inflation to resume its upward trend. The Italy-EMU inflation gap has closed, mainly on the back of non-core components, while the differential on core prices remained relatively stable."
- "In the Focus section we analyze the impact of the recession on the labor market. While the unemployment rate has increased less than in the eurozone, reforms are needed to foster new hiring, and prevent that a dual labor market leads to a jobless recovery."
Unicredit Italy Monitor 20100726
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